Producers in Saskatchewan are already feeling the impact of increased fertilizer prices.
Carl Potts, executive director of Saskatchewan Pulse Growers, said nitrogen fertilizer prices have climbed significantly.
“The price of nitrogen fertilizer has increased by 30 to 40 per cent,” Potts said.
He added some farmers are also facing supply uncertainty, with retailers hesitant to commit to new sales, even at higher prices.
Rising fuel and shipping costs are adding pressure across nearly every input.
Potts said fuel accounts for about 10 per cent of variable expenses in crops like red lentils, but the broader impact is widespread.
“Increases in fuel and shipping costs increase the cost of nearly all crop inputs, from machinery and parts to fertilizer and crop protection products,” he said.
While most planting decisions for 2026 have already been made, higher costs could still shift some acres.
Potts said some producers may move away from nitrogen-intensive crops like wheat or canola toward pulses, which require less fertilizer.
Shipping fuel spike raises broader concerns
The increase in fertilizer costs comes as global shipping fuel prices surge, driven in part by ongoing conflict in the Middle East and pressure on key trade routes.
Oil analyst and Forbes Contributor, Matt Randolph said rising shipping fuel costs are often an early signal of broader inflation.
“The first thing inflation hits when shipping fuel spikes is food,” he said.
Randolph added that slower shipping speeds, as vessels try to conserve fuel, can lead to delays across supply chains.
Federal government says risks rising, but Canada stable for now
The federal government says it is monitoring the situation closely but does not expect immediate shortages in Canada.
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada said global conflicts and geopolitical instability are contributing to higher input costs for farmers, including fuel and fertilizer.
“Conflict and geopolitical turmoil have implications for the supply and prices of fuel and fertilizer for farmers and the agricultural sector around the world, including in Canada,” the department said.
Officials said Canada’s domestic production and access to North American supply chains are expected to provide some stability.
“No structural nitrogen shortage is foreseen for the beginning of the 2026 growing season,” the department said.
However, the department acknowledged global pressures could still affect food prices.
“Wars, conflicts, and geopolitical crises… can contribute to retail food price increases,” the statement said.
Officials added that while Canada is not immune, the immediate risks to producers and consumers appear more contained at this stage.
What it means locally
For communities across the Prairies, the impacts are already taking shape.
Higher input costs for farmers can translate into increased food prices over time, particularly when combined with rising transportation and energy costs.
While there are no immediate signs of shortages in Canada, the combination of rising fuel, fertilizer and shipping costs is building pressure across the global food system.
Those impacts often take months to reach consumers.
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