A new analysis from the Pembina Institute says Meta’s planned $13 billion data centre in Sturgeon County could add up to $460 a year to the average Albertan’s electricity bill.
The Calgary based clean energy think tank released the analysis Wednesday. It projects Alberta power bills could climb 15 to 25 per cent between 2027 and 2031 because of the hyperscale facility.
Meta’s project sits northeast of Edmonton and is expected to draw 1,800 megawatts of electricity once fully built. That is close to 15 per cent of Alberta’s average power demand, or roughly the equivalent of the entire city of Calgary.
The Alberta government has pointed to a 6 per cent reduction in transmission costs as a benefit of the project. Premier Danielle Smith has said the deal will lower that portion of Albertans’ bills.
Pembina’s analysis confirms that transmission saving is real. But it says the saving is far outweighed by rising market costs tied to new demand on the grid.
“Albertans already pay some of the highest and most volatile electricity rates in the country,” said David Pickup, Pembina’s director of electricity.
“If data centres are coming to Alberta, they should help make our electricity system stronger, cleaner and more affordable. Instead, Alberta’s current rules risk increasing consumer costs, while locking in new high emission gas power.”
At issue is Alberta’s “bring your own generation” policy. It allows data centres to connect to the grid before the power plants built to supply them come fully online. That creates short term pressure on the electricity market, which Pembina says drives up costs for everyone until new generation catches up.
Because Alberta’s electricity market uses a single province wide price with no locational pricing, the cost increases outlined in Pembina’s analysis would apply to Lloydminster ratepayers on the Alberta side just as they would anywhere else in the province, regardless of the city sitting at the end of a transmission line.
Ashli Barrett, press secretary for Alberta’s Minister of Affordability and Utilities RJ Sigurdson, rejected Pembina’s conclusions.
“Pembina Institute’s analysis is designed to intentionally fearmonger and divide Albertans by mischaracterizing how Albertans pay for power, conflating wholesale rates with the retail rates that Albertans actually pay,” Barrett said in a statement.
Barrett said Albertans can choose from a range of electricity rate options, including a default rate fixed for two years with regulated caps on increases. She said Albertans would have to opt out of that option to be exposed to the market volatility Pembina describes.
Meta also disputed the analysis. Spokesperson Julia Perreira said the report was based on “hypotheticals and assumptions.”
“Meta pays the full cost of energy upgrades and electricity that our Sturgeon County data centre will use,” Perreira said. “Those costs will not be passed on to Albertans.”
Update: Following publication, Ashli Barrett, press secretary for Alberta’s Minister of Affordability and Utilities RJ Sigurdson, provided BorderPulse with the following statement in full, attributable to the Minister’s office.
“Pembina Institute’s analysis is designed to intentionally fearmonger and divide Albertans by mischaracterizing how Albertans pay for power, conflating wholesale rates with the retail rates that Albertans actually pay.
“Their analysis deliberately ignores our government’s ongoing work to enhance consumer protections, like stabilizing the default rate, which shields Albertans from wholesale market volatility.
“Albertans have a myriad of electricity rate options available to them, from competitive contracts to default rates. These options protect consumers from rate volatility by utilizing fixed rates. Our government has ensured that every Albertan has guaranteed access to a rate which is fixed for two years, and increases are capped by regulation. Albertans would have to explicitly opt out of this contract type to be subject to rate volatility. These fixed rates provide certainty on how any new large demands, like data centres, may impact electricity bills.
“Further, the report fails to properly account for the competitive nature of Alberta’s electricity market, where increased demand attracts new generation, which lowers power prices.”
